Yamamoto’s contract shows MLB has embraced permanent imbalance
Yoshinubu Yamamoto’s 12-year $325M contract with the Dodgers is the highest average annual guaranteed salary for a pitcher in Major League Baseball history. This is despite the fact that he has yet to throw a pitch in MLB. The Dodgers may not win the World Series this year or in the next few years, but it’s almost guaranteed that they will not have any losing seasons and will be in the playoff mix every year. How important is it to not have losing seasons? If nothing else, it signifies the team’s commitment to continued excellence even if championships remain elusive. But for fans, having a team avoid losing seasons is,…Meh. Baseball fans will take losing seasons as long as they get to enjoy a championship more than every 30 years! For most teams and fans that is sadly not the case. There is a permanent imbalance that will have the biggest spending teams avoiding losing seasons. That’s more difficult to achieve than you might think.
Including the 1992 season, there are only 7 franchises that have had more winning seasons than losing ones.
Those six teams are the Dodgers, Yankees, Red Sox, Guardians, Braves, Cardinals, and Giants. Two teams — the Padres and Phillies, have had 16 losing seasons over those 32 years. This means that 70% (21 out of 30) MLB teams have more losing seasons than winning ones over the past 32 years. It’s a little skewed since the Rockies and Marlins did not begin play until 1993, and the Rays and Diamondbacks began playing in 1998. The Rays do have only 12 losing seasons in their 26-year history.
When you win more often, more money comes with it. Larger gate shares based on consistently high game attendance, more merchandising, and of course more postseason revenue even when the team does not win the World Series! However, of the teams that routinely do not traditionally ‘spend’ money (Pirates, Rockies, Reds, Marlins, Nationals, Diamondbacks, Orioles, Rays, Royals, Tigers, Twins, Guardians, Angels, and Mariners), the Rays (4 losing seasons out of the past 19) are the most consistent franchise in producing a season-ending winning record. It did not start out that way for the Rays. Over the initial 8 years of the franchise, they had 8 consecutive losing seasons until they dropped the Devil in their team’s name.
How about the big spending teams?
The Los Angeles Dodgers have not had a losing record in 18 years since 2005. And if you go back to the year 2000, there’s one losing season in 23 years. Critics will point out that those same Dodgers have only one World Series title over that period and that one was during the pandemic season of 2020.
The New York Yankees have not had a losing season in 32 years — since the 1992 season. They also have 5 World Series titles, none since 2009. The Yankees always seem to be in it. Their trade for and eventual signing (how could they not?) of Juan Soto trumpets their return to their status as big-time spenders.
Even the Boston Red Sox — a team that has so far won the 21st century, have had few losing seasons since 1998 and only 10 since 1992). Since ’98 there have only been 6 and that’s including both the pandemic season and the past 2 seasons. 19 winning seasons out of 25 sounds pretty good. And then there’s the three World Series championships.
The San Francisco Giants are a big-market team wannabe, but more often than not they are spurned by stars and have been inconsistent winners in terms of season-ending records. But like the Red Sox they have three World Series titles since 2010. They also have 6 losing seasons in the past 14 seasons not including a .500 2020 season. Overall the Giants have only 14 losing seasons in the past 32 years.
And then there’s the Mets. A top-spending team now that Steve Cohen has owned the team for the past 3 years, their big spending history is still in its infancy. Of course, the Mets are still doing ‘Mets’ things like having a losing record in 2023 while having the highest payroll in MLB history. Their 19 losing seasons out of the past 32 will not come as a surprise to anyone.
But while the team might not compete to win it all in the next year, with Uncle Steve’s money the Mets will are unlikely to have a bunch of losing seasons in terms of being under .500.
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Which teams spend most effectively?
In addition to the Giants, the St. Louis Cardinals are not considered a big spending team. Yet their record of being a consistently winning team is undeniable with 2 losing seasons since 1999, (including this past season). The Cards have had only 6 losing seasons in the past 32. Their unwillingness to spend freely might be noble and a source of pride but if that continues, it will lead to more losing seasons than St. Louis fans have become accustomed to.
Consider the Braves. 6 losing seasons since 1990. How about the 14 straight NL East Division titles from 1991–2005? The 2 World Series titles in that period make the past 33 years an amazing time to be a fan of the Braves. They spend wisely on young players although it’s still too early to call all the recent early lockups of young players to long contracts a success, since that success (or failure) will be judged over time. Their young players are still young, (which is great) but injuries and drops in performance are always possible. The Braves did endure four consecutive losing seasons recently in 2014–2017, which proved to be a reloading more than it was a losing trend. Not being one of the top spending teams permits this to happen but the Braves and their fans appear to be ok with that. Just imagine if the Braves threw around salaries like the Dodgers, Yankees, and Mets? The Braves believe they may have hit on a winning formula. GM Alex Anthopolous has a right to be a little smug — just like his predecessor John Schuerholz.
The Tampa Bay Rays have had only 2 losing seasons since 2007. Always in the running but have also failed to bring home a first World Series crown to Tampa. The Rays (4 losing seasons out of the past 19) are the most consistent AL low-spending team. If you go back to the first 8 years of the franchise, they had 8 consecutive losing seasons until they dropped the ‘Devil’.
The Phillies with 16 losing seasons out of the past 32, have moved into the ‘effective spenders’ category. They’re not afraid to throw around money and giant contracts like the one Bryce Harper and Zach Wheeler signed a few years ago have turned out well and there’s no reason to think the recent signing of Aaron Nola will turn out differently. The Phillies have more financial resources than the Rays but have had 6 losing seasons since 2001 and one World Series title. The Phils also had seven consecutive losing seasons from 1994–2000. Both teams have come close in recent years but their approaches to team building are quite different. The Phillies will spend more money than the Rays and will have fewer losing season records in the future. Money talks that way.
Which teams spend but it’s not exactly working out?
Aside from the Mets, the San Diego Padres have recently tried to spend their way to success but have fallen short of winning a pennant much less a World Series. Since their last World Series appearance in 1998, the Padres have suffered 21 losing seasons out of the past 32 with 15 losing seasons out of 24. All their big spending in the past two years has generated two non-losing seasons. In 2023 behind a late season push, they won 82 games, but it seemed much worse than that. In the short term, the Padres may be pivoting away from big spending. But they do have the resources to go big again in the future unlike so many other mainly small market teams.
Are the other teams too financially strapped to compete year in and year out?
The short answer is yes. The age-old small market vs. big market imbalance conversation has not changed much in thirty years although a shift away from maximizing cable TV rights has already taken place. Those cable rights should have enabled big market teams to capitalize on their innate broader audience. But that has affected overall franchise valuation much more than it has led to success on the field.
What about all the losing seasons?
In the National League
The Nationals/Expos (17 out of 30), Marlins (23 out of 31), Pirates (27 out of 31), Reds (20 out of 33), Cubs (18 out of 34), Brewers (19 out of 34) Rockies (23 out of their 31) have all had too many losing seasons. The Diamondbacks are a bit better having only 11 losing seasons in their 26-year history. They’ve also had two 81-win seasons and two 82-win seasons. Making to the World Series in 2023 was a big positive jolt to the franchise and its fans, and at least they won it all in 2001.
In the American League
It’s hard to tell exactly what the Guardians are trying to do. Better at most teams at avoiding losing records, they are clearly not a big-spending team. On the positive side, since 1992 they’ve had 13 losing seasons out of 32 and have appeared in two World Series. The playoff losses have been excruciating at times and the weight of not winning a World Series since 1948 hangs around. To boot, longtime Cleveland fans don’t want to talk about 1969–1991 period which saw the team suffer 19 losing seasons out of 23. That’s what made the movie ‘Major League’ so spot-on in terms of the team’s losing ways.
The Twins seem to make the playoffs every year. This year they won their first playoff game since 2004 after losing 18 consecutive playoff games. Yet it is surprising that the Twins have suffered 17 losing seasons (out of 32) since 1992 (the year after they won their 2nd WS in 5 years). Conversely the Mariners who’ve also endured 17 losing seasons over the past 32, have never even appeared in a World Series. They say they are ‘going for it’ but in terms of big contract spending they’ve stood aside.
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The Tigers (21 losing seasons out of 32) and White Sox (16 losing seasons out of the past 32) would seemingly have the financial resources to spend on big name players. But they haven’t gone all-in on big free agents since Miguel Cabrera, Javy Baez non-withstanding. The Royals with 26 losing seasons out of the past 32, also don’t spend lavishly on free agents and it is as depressing as it looks for Royals fans. The Angels are only a bit better with 18 losing seasons out of the past 32. They have spent some money (with mixed results) on players like Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon, but they lost too much to keep Shohei around.
Shouldn’t ALL the teams be spending more? Baseball writer Molly Knight recently pointed out:
Baseball teams do not open their books for us to analyze, because they don’t want the smoke, but experts have estimated that each team receives around $60 million a year for national television rights, thanks to the deals the league has with ESPN, Fox, TBS and others. That’s before a single ticket or hot dog is sold.
While local TV rights deals are a mess for many teams caught up in Diamond Sports’ bankruptcy right now, you will never convince me that the Pirates and the Orioles and the A’s are justified in barely spending $60 million on player salary each year, especially when they also receive revenue-sharing from rich teams. The billionaires who own these teams have gaslit their fans into blaming the Yankees and Dodgers and Mets for why they can’t afford top players because it’s easier than looking at themselves in the mirror.
The non-spending owners still have benefitted and will continue benefit in the huge increases in their franchise’s valuation. This is incredibly frustrating to the team’s fans as it makes them feel that their team is in a never-ending failure loop. They aren’t mistaken. Calls for owners to sell the team in Anaheim, Oakland (soon Las Vegas) and Kansas City are displays of fan’s frustrations.
Having your team finish the season with an over .500 record is interesting for about one day if there’s no more baseball to be played that season. Each year only one team out of 30 can claim victory. Watching your favorite team compete to make the playoffs (at least) year in and year out is an underappreciated blessing. Most baseball fans are like me and would trade 15 consecutive losing seasons for that one magical championship year!
About the Author: Mark Kolier along with his son Gordon co-hosts a baseball podcast called ‘Almost Cooperstown’. He also has written baseball-related articles that can be accessed on Medium.com and now Substack.com.
