When pitch framing disappears baseball catchers will be harder to evaluate
Baseball fans have become accustomed to watching catchers attempt to ‘steal’ strikes. To make it more palatable it’s popularly called ‘pitch framing’ but it’s really nothing more than an attempt to fool the umpire. It’s also true that umpires are known to not take kindly to the catchers attempting to dupe them, even going so far as to warn the catcher. But things never go any further. I’ve never seen a catcher get thrown out of game for repeated offenses of pitch framing which they do as a matter of habit.
Stealing strikes will go the way of the dodo bird
Not a news flash — Automatic balls and strikes are coming to an MLB park near you. Sometime soon, we’re just not sure exactly when. MLB commissioner Rob Manfred has floated out that maybe MLB will test the challenge system during Spring Training 2025. I think the chance is a lot more than maybe. A challenge system has been already in place in the minor leagues receiving good reviews overall. The idea that is that if tested successfully MLB will implement a challenge system for the 2026 season. That’s one step removed from full automated balls and strikes.
Here’ s how a challenge system for balls and strikes would work from Sports Illustrated:
Under the current system being used in Triple-A, a human umpire call balls and strikes, but the pitcher, catcher and hitter all have the right to challenge calls they believe were missed. When that happens, the automated ball-strike (ABS) system takes over. The ABS system uses Hawk-Eye camera technology to judge each pitch, much like in tennis.
When a player calls for a challenge, Hawk-Eye is implemented and shows the path of the ball relative to the strike zone. Each player’s strike zone is individualized. Each team in Triple-A is currently allowed three unsuccessful challenges per game. Successful challenges do not count against that number.
A full ABS system is more complicated than it looks. Beside the need for multiple cameras, what defines a strike as it crosses the plate must be agreed upon (easy) and then it must render correctly when displaying the box seen on the TV screen (more difficult). The delay in having ABS arrive sooner is lodged in how to properly depict the ‘box’ and strike zone.
MLB umpires who’ve been under increasing scrutiny for missed calls, understand that ABS is an inevitability. But that doesn’t mean they have to like it as it makes them feel as if they are losing control. They aren’t wrong since they are losing control, but that’s not a bad thing. The ability to ascertain a speeding, spinning, 100 M.P.H. projectile is beyond the ability of the human eye.
Pro tennis had the same problem and transitioned from a challenge system to a fully automated line calling system. The automated line calling system has been in place for several years and is accepted and appreciated whenever it is in place, at major tournaments and other events that can afford to have the technology on hand.
Fans won’t miss all the bad calls and neither will umpires
A few years from now fans won’t even notice that the home plate umpire is using ABS to call balls and strikes. The calls will just be correct. Every time. Everybody wins! Except catchers.
What will happen to catchers
Removing pitch framing from a catcher’s resume will mean that the evaluation process for catchers will become more difficult. Since the implementation of the limitations but on. Batter disengagements for pitchers in 2023, base stealing has become more of a factor in baseball. Accordingly, so has throwing out baserunners! Without pitch framing the ability for catchers to throw out would-be base stealers will be one of the only defensively measurable statistics. A catcher’s ability to ‘call a game’ for the pitcher is an unmeasurable asset and we’re not ever exactly certain as to who is calling pitches — the pitcher, the catcher or the manager/pitching coach.
Throwing out attempt base stealers isn’t a great metric
A top defensive catcher will throw out about 1/3 of the baserunners attempting to steal. A good base-stealing success rate is thought to be 75–80%. There’s room in the margin to understand how a top catcher will nab 10% more base stealers than an average one. How important might that be? Not as much as it might seem at first.
Below on the list you will see that the KC Royals Salvador Perez leads MLB catchers through his career, catching 33.38% of attempted base stealers (237). Since 2016 the MLB average is 30% caught stealing. Being average would mean Perez would have caught 24 fewer base stealers for his 13-year career. Sally’s prowess is great but an average of less than two caught stealing per season is not a real needle mover in terms of evaluation.
I was surprised to not see J.T. Realmuto’s name on the above list and From Baseball Savant, he grades out at the top of the list for catcher runs saved. Realmulto of the Phillies until 2023 and 2024 regularly graded out as among the best catching base stealers and is at 32% for his career.
Good throwing catchers are a given
Being a good throwing catcher is a requisite already, and ABS will not change that.
However, it’s unlikely that MLB catchers can substantially improve their ability to throw out would-be base stealers, even if they can focus more on throwing when pitch framing is gone.
A shift to a roster of two good-hitting catchers will be where the biggest impacts of ABS will be felt. The list for 2024 of Defense-first specialists displays guys that will be looking for other jobs if they can’t adapt and become better hitters. Austin Barnes of the Dodgers, Tucker Barnhart of the Reds, and Riley Adams of the Nationals, all of whom have OPS+ of 629 or less, will no longer be tolerated in a world with ABS.
Catching remains the most debilitating position on the baseball field. Finding one catcher who can consistently mash and be at least average on defense is the first challenge. Having two catchers who can hit will become more of a team priority once ABS is fully adopted in MLB.
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About the Author: Mark Kolier along with his son Gordon co-hosts a baseball podcast called ‘Almost Cooperstown’. He also has written baseball-related articles that can be accessed on Medium.com and Substack.com.
