There’s danger in overvaluing organizational prospects
When Bryce Harper was 16 years-old he appeared on the cover of the June 8, 2009, issue of Sports illustrated. I write with some sadness that Harper’s relevance has lasted longer than that venerated publication. Baseball prospects have always been something for fans and clubs to get starry-eyed about.
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Here’s the thing about MLB prospects. Too many of them don’t pan out. It can cost a team years of misery when it makes the wrong evaluation and touted prospects flame out. This past weekend the NBA saw the most shocking trade in league history occur with Luka Doncic, (along with Maxi Kleber and Markieff Morris), moving to the Lakers for Anthony Davis, Max Christie and a 2029 Laker 1st round pick. Giving up that future first round pick did not deter the Lakers. LeBron probably won’t still be playing in 2029 as he will be 44, so there’s the chance the Lakers may not be so good. The Lakers didn’t balk at giving up their own HOF player in Davis, as well as a promising young player in Christie AND a #1 draft pick. They went for it now, which makes sense given LeBron’s age.
Realistic evaluation of your own prospects is a baseball thing more than it is in the other North American professional sports. Having multiple prospects waiting in the wings for their time to shine is endemic to baseball. However, positioning a team that is close enough to make a run for the title means pulling out all the stops when ultimate victory (a championship) is within sight.
Building a sustainable winning team a la the Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Yankees, requires both capital AND smarts. Winning a World Series has evolved in a karma-like thing. The vibe and conditions need to be just right. The 2015 Royals, 2019 Nationals are proof of that. They had a reasonable chance as underdog teams and found a way to grab the brass ring.
The danger of loss-aversion
People tend to overvalue things that they own. If you’ve read Daniel Khaneman’s Thinking Fast and Slow you know that the concept of overvaluing things you own is referred to as the “endowment effect,” which describes the cognitive bias where people tend to assign a higher value to something simply because they possess it, regardless of its actual market value. This essentially makes them perceive their belongings as more valuable than they would if they didn’t own them. Baseball prospects are a perfect example of the endowment effect.
Go for it now!
This winter the Mets have been back and forth on a potential deal with their former first baseman, now free agent Pete Alonso. The Mets appear to have a solid team but without Pete Alonso it can only be seen as the third best team in the NL East. Even signing Pete Alonso might not move the Mets up past the Phillies and Braves as presently constituted as they still would be a player or two away from being a true favorite for the title.
The Padres appear to be in a non-spending mode, which is unfamiliar territory for their GM A.J. Preller. Consequently, their best starting pitcher Dylan Cease who in 2025 is entering the final year of his contract, (and is represented by Scott Boras who is also representing Alonso, and do the Mets really want to do this dance again?), is apparently on the trading block. The Mets have some attractive prospects such as infielder Luisangel Acuna, (younger brother of 2023 MVP Ronald Acuna) as well as outfielders Jett Williams (who also plays infield), and Drew Gilbert, as well as pitchers Jonah Tong, and Brandon Sproat. Acuna, in a short sample late in the 2024 season looked very good filling in for an injured Francisco Lindor. His potential value will never be higher. He’s young and cheap AND has pedigree. Met fans really like him and would rather not trade him. Acuna was acquired in the deal that sent Max Scherzer to the Rangers in 2023. That may add to the fans’ reticence to trade him. Met fans want to end up with something good for Max Scherzer!
Should the Mets hold on to Acuna and the other prospects? To date the Padres have not been enticed enough by whatever it is the Mets are offering. It’s true that Cease, through his contract status, is a quasi-mercenary since he will seek a multi-year deal as a top free agent starting pitcher after the 2025 season. Mets POBO David Stearns has displayed a distaste for long-term starting pitcher contracts, unlike the Yankees who signed left-handed star starter Max Fried to an eight year contract this offseason. It’s possible, if not likely, that trading for Cease is a one season and done situation.
The Mets could also wait until the trading deadline to trade for Cease. If it lasts that long, trading for Cease at the 2025 trading deadline in July would have the acquiring team gain the right to make Cease a qualifying offer and if they were to lose him anyway, receive a draft pick as compensation. Draft picks. It’s always about the draft picks, isn’t it?
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Get in the game
Just like NFL teams go for it on fourth down SO much more frequently than they formerly did — and they also go for the two-point conversion WAY more than they used to, putting loss-aversion to the side enables a team to make the play to win as opposed to letting things play out. No, it doesn’t always work out. But going for it and not overvaluing your own assets is what winners do.
About the Author: Mark Kolier along with his son Gordon co-hosts a baseball podcast called ‘Almost Cooperstown’. He also has written baseball-related articles that can be accessed on Medium.com and Substack.com. Mark can be reached on x @almostcoop and almostcooperstown@gmail.com
