Introducing a New All-Encompassing Baseball Statistic
Batter Bases Created — Going Beyond TB/PA
Can batters be evaluated fairly without considering Offensive Wins Above Replacement (WAR)? On our podcast, my son and I discussed that the average fan (this means us) does not fully understand how WAR is calculated. We all get theconcept and realize that many stats contribute to a player’s offensive WAR (a player’s total WAR is the sum of his offensive WAR and his defensive WAR), and a player’s home stadium is just one of many other variables. Fans kind of know what’s in the WAR total, but we don’t exactly know. At least not off the tops of our collective heads.
Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) takes the statistic Runs Created and adjusts that number to account for factors like ballpark and era. This is a very good statistic, but the calculation is anything but simple.
(((wRAA per PA + league runs per PA) + (league runs per PA — ballpark factor x league runs per PA) / league wRC per plate appearance, not including pitchers)) x 100.
For the fans playing at home, that’s not a piece of cake once you have to add in ballpark factor and league runs per plate appearance.
I’ve always been a fan of the Total Bases (TB) statistic. As fans know, TB is comprised of a batter’s total by adding Singles x1, Doubles x2, Triples x3, and Home Runs x4. Total bases are undervalued, and the stat clearly favors power hitters over singles hitters. I thought about easier ways for fans to measure hitter productivity and started fooling around with TB divided by Plate Appearances (PA) or TB/PA. On our podcast, we discussed that it’s a brand-new statistic! While it’s always been right in front of our eyes, nobody thought much about it.
When measuring all-time TB/PA, it revealed that the greatest players in MLB history are at the top of the all-time lists. This might not be a big surprise until you look at the list and realize the order of the list is not what you’d expect. Taking TB/PA by team, the 2023 Atlanta Braves are the greatest hitting team of all time. You can read what I wrote about that here:
If WAR is hell could there be one baseball stat to rule them all?
My son and I also recorded a podcast about the idea, but we both felt TB/PA was itself limiting.
Further thought brought me and us to creating another “new” baseball stat. That stat (drumroll please) is Bases Created divided by Plate Appearances (BC/PA). To be clear, this is an unadjusted stat for ballparks and eras. Listeners and readers told us that Total Bases is limiting since it omits Bases on Balls, Intentional Walks, Hit-by-Pitches, and Stolen Bases. We agreed that a batter’s overall offensive effectiveness should include their running ability. Net stolen bases are also added. So now we have TB + BB + IBB + HBP + SB — CS (caught stealings), for a statistic called “Bases Created.” That is then divided by PA, or BC/PA.
When we used BC/PA as a measure, it was notable that Babe Ruth and Barry Bonds were virtually tied at the top of the list, each having a BC/PA quotient of .567. The Babe ran more than you might have thought, stealing 123 bases in his hallowed career. However, the Bambino was thrown out 116 times for a net SB of … seven. Ruth was also famously, or infamously, thrown out trying to steal second base to end the 1926 World Series vs. the “Gashouse Gang” St. Louis Cardinals.
Third all-time for BC/PA is Vladimir Guerrero, which surprised us, followed by Mike Trout, which did not. Players that have power and can steal bases are special, yet the top of the BC/PA list is not chock full of speedsters with Lou Gehrig at №5, Joe DiMaggio №6, Larry Walker №7, Hank Greenberg №8, Juan Gonzalez №9 (this shocked us), and Ted Williams at №10. As we said on our recent podcast, any significant all-time list has probably never had Juan Gonzalez ahead of Ted Williams in anything.
We felt confident that BC/PA was a pretty cool new stat which average fans could calculate by going to Baseball-Reference.com. A link to a Google sheet is here in case you want to see a summary: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1gf0EqDbWD5WP0eRa70fzS4veNq9d6ux6Rsq7e80Yheo/edit?usp=sharing
There are still some nagging issues. For instance, we wanted to include “Grounded into Double Plays” (GIDP) into the Bases Created total. A problem is that the National League did not begin tabulating GIDP until 1933, and the American League not until 1939. This unfairly helps players like Ruth and Gehrig, since their net Bases Created is not dinged by a negative stat like GIDP. We thought about having an asterisk but that seemed unwieldy, so we left it out. We thought about a player’s ability to go from first to third on a single, or to run all the way to home plate from first base, on a single or double. Those “extra” bases, which means one more than the player would have been expected to gain, should contribute to the player’s Bases Created total. Being picked off base should also count against a player’s BC total. These are a little more difficult to pull out, but we’re working on it.For now, at worst we have a new statistical toy to play with. By no means is BC/PA a perfect statistical representation of an offensive player’s total contribution. It does create an interesting list of all-time great players and great teams with just a few head-scratching outliers. Like Albert Belle at №15 all-time and Alfonso Soriano at №26, just ahead of Frank Robinson.
Keep in mind that the BC/PA statistic favors modern era players and teams since the game today, and for nearly the past nearly years, is much more about home runs than singles. Hitters who hit few home runs but could steal bases are nowhere to be found in the top 100. On the all-time BC/PA for teams, there are only eight teams prior to 1996 that appear in the top 50, with the highest being the 1936 Yankees at №14. The 1927 Yankees are 30th all-time on this list.
BC/PA is still a work in progress, and the most fun and interesting thing about it is the actual lists of players and teams themselves. That this season’s Braves have the highest BC/PA in MLB history is a fortuitous and welcome coincidence. As writer Jayson Stark likes to say, “Baseball!”
About the Author: Mark Kolier along with his son Gordon co-hosts a baseball podcast called ‘Almost Cooperstown’. He also has written baseball-related articles that can be accessed on Medium.com and now Substack.com.
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