In MLB — Youth is served up sooner than ever
Almost all players who reach the Major Leagues began their careers in minor league baseball. It used to be called ‘seasoning’ which was very accurate since it often took many seasons for a player to gain the requisite skills and experience required to be a major leaguer. While there have been exceptions in which young players went directly to MLB, those occasions are few and far between. One-armed pitcher Jim Abbott (1989) is the most recent MLB player to make it to the major leagues without playing minor league baseball.
What has changed is that young players begin their professional careers younger than ever and may only play a couple of seasons in the minor leagues. It’s because young and yet MLB experienced players such as Michael Harris II (23), Corbin Carroll (23), Evan Carter (21), and Julio Rodriguez (23) have made such dynamic early career contributions that this will embolden teams to bring young players onto the MLB roster sooner than would have been the case ten years ago.
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How about the ‘veteran’ Ronald Acuna Jr?
Can you believe that the 26-year-old Acuna is entering his 7th MLB season? Acuna was one of the players the Braves signed to long-term ‘team-friendly’ deals. Austin Riley, Ozzie Albies and Michael Harris II are others who signed long-term deals with Atlanta. Acuna Jr. debuted at age 20 and had an OPS+ of 143 in his ROY 2018 season. Acuna Jr. was brought into the Braves organization in 2015 when he was 17. Carroll was drafted in 2019 at age 18 and was the National League Rookie of the Year in 2023 when he turned 23. The Rangers’ Evan Carter was drafted in 2020 at age 18 and played a major role for the 2023 World Series Champs at age 20.
Not every long-term signing of a young player will work out. So far, the Braves have hit the jackpot with their locking up of young players.
The Orioles might be heading in the same direction in terms of signing young stars. Adley Rutschmann was drafted first in 2016 when he was 18 and then again in 2019 (having attended Oregon State) and became a full-time regular in 2022 at age 24. He’s older for this list like Acuna Jr. at 26 years old. Gunnar Henderson, Jackson Holliday, and Grayson Rodriguez all are worth consideration for a long-term deal. Even if one of them does not work out, the sum total will be greater than the individual parts.
Are young players more advanced now than they used to be?
For all the talk about being under-prepared to take on the grind of MLB, young players are more physically able to do that than older players. The mental side combined with the life-side is what holds players back from success at a tender age. Today’s young stars have a team to help them manage the grind that is MLB. By signing players to long-term deals earlier in their careers, the player gives up some possible maximum income for the security of being paid more handsomely at a young age. Formerly players had to wait until their mid-to late 20’s to reap the financial rewards of their preternatural prowess.
Do MLB clubs benefit from signing young players to long-term contracts earlier in their careers?
Braves GM Alex Anthopolous and the team ownership thinks so. The Tigers in January signed INF Colt Keith to a six-year contract with three club options. The 22-year-old Keith has never played an MLB game. Keith signed a month after the Brewers 19-year-old Jackson Chourio, who became the sixth player to sign a contract extension before his first big league game.
Others who’ve received contract extensions not having played in a big-league game:
Luis Robert Jr.
Evan White
Eloy Jimenez
Scott Kingery
Jon Singleton
It could be argued that only Luis Robert Jr. and maybe Eloy Jimenez have returned well on those early investments in their careers. But clearly there is risk in locking up a player with a long-term deal before he’s played even one MLB game.
Prices will always go up
MLB payroll costs continue to rise, just as the valuations of team’s franchises have steadily risen. Lower contract average annual values (AAV’s) are very desirable for franchises. Paying a higher rate for a player’s early career performance can help a team manage its future payroll to keep those young stars around for a longer time. Teams have embraced the trend.
From ESPN in December 2022: In the history of MLB free agency only four players have received deals that have extended beyond 10 years — and three of those came in December of 2022. Trea Turner agreed to an 11-year, $300 million contract with the Philadelphia Phillies on Dec. 5, Xander Bogaerts got 11 years and $280 million from the San Diego Padres on Dec. 8 and Carlos Correa eventually landed with the Minnesota Twins on a 10-year, $200 million contract — one week after agreeing to a 13-year, $350 million deal with the San Francisco Giants and a 12-year $315 million deal with the New York Mets that fell apart over a disagreement about his physical. Turner and Bogaerts will be paid through their age-40 seasons. Correa and Aaron Judge, who accepted a nine-year, $360 million contract to return to the New York Yankees, are locked up through age 39.
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Also in 2022, the now Yankee Juan Soto, reportedly turned down $440 million from the Washington Nationals before the Nats traded him to San Diego. The Padres declined to make a deal with Soto for the $500 million plus contract that Soto is said to seek. The longer you wait the more expensive a great young player will cost. Soto, like Acuna Jr, is a six-year MLB veteran and won’t turn 26 until this year’s World Series. Acuna Jr. signed an 8-year $100M contract in 2021 which is an AAV of $12.5M per season including team options in 2027 and 2028, which they seem sure to exercise unless Acuna Jr. and the Braves work out another deal. After Acuna Jr.’s 2023 season that seems like it might be a very good idea.
Young players are healthier than older players. That’s no surprise to anyone. Signing younger players to long-term deals that expire before they turn 30 years old allows both the team and the player to benefit, while still allowing the player to have another big, long-term payday. It’s better this way.
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10110327-mlbs-25-best-players-under-25-years-old-in-2024
Here’s what I wrote about the New York Mets this week for www.MLBReport.com
https://mlbreport.com/2024/03/why-the-mets-and-j-d-martinez-arent-a-great-fit/
https://mlbreport.com/2024/03/the-2024-mets-coaching-staff/
https://mlbreport.com/2024/03/mets-spring-breakout-notes/
Thanks for reading!
About the Author: Mark Kolier along with his son Gordon co-hosts a baseball podcast called ‘Almost Cooperstown’. He also has written baseball-related articles that can be accessed on Medium.com and now Substack.com.
