Hall of Fame players playing in this 2024 season
On average, there are anywhere from 35 to 40 future Hall of Famers playing in any given season. With the retirement of Miguel Cabrera, and the uncertain retirement status of Zack Greinke who wants to play another season, Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer are two slam-dunk HOF players fans will want to watch play this season. It may or may not be their final season and neither has offered any clues as to when they might be hanging up their spikes. Clayton Kershaw may or may not pitch this season for the Dodgers but if he does pitch, he’s included in that slam-dunk HOFer category. Mike Trout who has already played 13 MLB seasons is also in that slam-dunk HOF category.
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Tier 1 beyond a doubt HOFers
Verlander, Scherzer, Trout, Kershaw
In case you feel it may be too early for Trout to be a HOF already, one statistic, career on base plus slugging stands out. He’s played 13 seasons, and his .994 career OPS is the 12th highest in baseball history. Only two players above that level are not in the Hall of Fame. Barry Bonds and Manny Ramirez. Trout is better in the field than both so throw out any doubts. Trout will be a Hall-of-Famer.
Tier 2 probable HOFers — includes players that have already played the requisite 10 seasons and look sure to be inducted.
Greinke, Joey Votto, Freddie Freeman, Paul Goldschmidt
Do you really want to contend that anyone in Tier 2 will not be a HOFer? Here’s the thing, all these players have had better careers than you think. They are what Hall of Famers look like when they are playing. Votto signed a minor league contract with the Blue Jays for this season after the Reds declined to sign him for 2024 so it’s possible that he may retire.
Tier 3 could-be HOFers — includes players who’ve played 10 years but might need a bit more added to their resumes.
Jose Altuve, Nolan Arenado, Mookie Betts, Bryce Harper, Manny Machado
The above players have probably done enough already, and have several good years left in them. They may not need much more than a good year or two to move up to Tier 2.
Tier 4 — Would-be HOFers — features 10-year+ players who’ve got more to do than Tier 3 to make it into the HOF.
Xander Bogaerts, Gerrit Cole, Jacob DeGrom, Kenley Jansen Craig Kimbrel, Jose Ramirez, Giancarlo Stanton
Do Bogaerts, Jansen, Kimbrel and Stanton cause you to raise an eyebrow? All 4 could use at least three or more good seasons to make their case that much stronger.
Kimbrel and Jansen are the closer contingent from their generation. Saves are not as important as they once were, but they were important when both began their careers. Each has more than 400 saves. Both have had dominant stretches in their careers. Kimbrel and Jansen will have a chance to add to their career stats this season and beyond.
Xander Bogaerts had a better season in 2023 than people think and is only 30. The Padres are hoping that the Bogaerts of Boston will re-emerge in San Diego.
Gerrit Cole has just gone about his business over his excellent 11-year career whether that was in Pittsburgh, Houston or now in New York. He’s the best pitcher in baseball and has been for the past three years. Cole is in a great position to be a future HOFer.
Jacob DeGrom has two Cy Young awards and an unbelievable 5.38 strikeouts to walks ratio for his entire 10-year career. DeGrom’s problem as far as the HOF goes, is that he’s only made 214 starts in those 10 seasons. Already 35, he needs either another Cy Young season or three or more seasons of dominance that he’s displayed in the past. It’s a long shot but not impossible.
Giancarlo Stanton has 402 career home runs, more than 1,000 RBIs, and a career OPS+ of 137. Hitting in a Yankee lineup with Soto and Judge will help if he can stay healthy this year and for another few. Stanton is only 33. It just feels like he should be older.
Jose Ramirez is also only 30 and is one of the most overlooked players in baseball. If he stays healthy and produces at his average level, he will make it into Cooperstown rather easily.
Tier 5 — future HOFers that have not played the requisite 10 years but have a real chance already.
Carlos Correa (9 seasons), Aaron Judge (8), Francisco Lindor (9), Shohei Ohtani (6), Corey Seager (9), Juan Soto (6).
If I was a betting man, I’d bet that all six of the above players will be enshrined in Cooperstown one day. That there are two players with only six seasons of MLB service time in this tier is maybe a bit of a stretch, but then those players are Juan Soto and Shohei Ohtani so it’s probably not.
Tier 6 — Others that haven’t yet played 10 seasons and have some chance but are far from being certain.
Alex Bregman (8), Trea Turner (9)
Bregman is only 29 and his biggest issue is that he plays third base which in the past had been an underrepresented position in the HOF. The recent inductions of Chipper Jones, Scott Rolen, and Adrian Beltre have evened things up a bit, and great third basemen like Machado and Jose Ramirez loom large as future potential HOFers. Bregman will have to produce five or more superior seasons. Trea Turner plays an excellent shortstop, can steal bases and hit for average along with some power. He also needs at least five or six more stellar seasons to make it to the HOF.
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Tier 7 — Have not played enough but it looks good so far.
Ronald Acuna, Rafael Devers, Yordan Alvarez. All have played 7 seasons or less.
Lots of work for these players yet to do but what a great start to their careers.
Names not included because these players have even further to go — pitchers Aaron Nola, Corbin Burnes. Both have a chance but will have to step on it — more so Nola than Burnes only because he’s entering his age-31 season. Zach Wheeler has had a great stretch with the Phillies but is too far away to make up the ground he lost to injuries early in his career.
Adding up all the players in the seven tiers it’s a total of 31 which from a historical perspective seems about right. There are other players that are earlier in their careers that are not yet included. Of the group that includes Ronald Acuna Jr, Julio Rodriguez, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Adley Rutschman Pete Alonso, Austin Riley, Spencer Strider, Bo Bichette, and Fernando Tatis Jr., there are sure to be a few of future HOFers in that bunch!
Here’s what I wrote about the Mets this past week:
https://mlbreport.com/2024/03/bench-coach-john-gibbons-a-once-and-current-met/
https://mlbreport.com/2024/03/mets-starting-pitching-staff-questions/
https://mlbreport.com/2024/03/which-mets-prospects-will-play-for-them-this-season/
About the Author: Mark Kolier along with his son Gordon co-hosts a baseball podcast called ‘Almost Cooperstown’. He also has written baseball-related articles that can be accessed on Medium.com and now Substack.com.
