Going all in for one year
The Orioles are going all in this coming MLB season, aren’t they? In the past week the team has new ownership, pulled off an aggressive trade to upgrade the team (Corbin Burnes) and are poised to have a full season of another rookie-of-the-year candidate in Jackson Holliday. All this for a team that won 101 games in 2023 before flaming out in three straight to the eventual World Series champion Rangers.
There’s just one itty-bitty problem. The Orioles still play in the American League East which is the toughest division in baseball as ranked by Fangraphs (the NL East is second). Did last year’s run to the division title (only 2 games better than the Rays) wear the O’s out in the playoff vs. Texas? Losing closer Felix Bautista to Tommy John surgery in late August was crippling to the bullpen. But they scored three runs in losing two of the three games in the playoff sweep. The bats went cold in games one and three and the pen got swamped in game two.
The Orioles know Bautista will most likely be out the entire 2024 season. What have they done to replace him? With the acquisition of Burnes from Milwaukee, and the return of left stalwart John Means, the Orioles starting rotation looks like this: Corbin Burnes, Kyle Bradish, Grayson Rodriguez, John Means, and Dean Kremer. To replace Bautista the O’s brought in Craig Kimbrel on a one-year deal. All-Star Yennier Cano, and lefties Danny Coulmbe, and Cionel Perez were excellent in 2023 and return in 2024. Kimbrel has had a HOF-caliber career but will make Oriole fans nervous because that’s what he does now. Who knows, perhaps the O’s can go back to Milwaukee and at the trading deadline or before pry away closer Devin Williams since the Brewers appear to be rebuilding later. Still if the Orioles are really going for it in 2024 — and it sure seems that way — the bullpen seems incomplete.
AL East competition
Those other pesky AL East teams are not going to make it easy for the Orioles. At least the revamped scheduling has division rivals playing 13 games vs. one another as opposed to the former 19. That’s 52 games in division vs. 76. The Orioles were an excellent 32–20 in the AL East in 2023 but the Yankees are better with Juan Soto and Marcus Stroman in the rotation, and the Rays will be the Rays and Jays are still formidable and a team nobody wants to play.
Did the Yankees go all-in for 2024? They missed out on the top-level free agent pitchers in Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and the Yanks seem unlikely to land either Blake Snell or reunite with Jordan Montgomery. Gerrit Cole still lords over the top of the rotation and Stroman is a solid addition to the rotation. But there’s a lot of hope too. Hope that Carlos Rodon returns to form and the same applies to ‘Nasty’ Nestor Cortes. Hope that now #5 starter Clarke Schmidt who started 32 games in 2023 and had a close to MLB average 9–9 season, has another one. Juan Soto is an amazing player and should thrive in Yankee Stadium hitting behind (or in front) of Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton. The bullpen which was excellent last season was not improved with the loss of Michael King. But still without another big-time starter the Bronx Bombers seems a little short of going for it don’t you think?
While the Blue Jays and Rays will be good, their fans would likely agree that their teams haven’t made the moves to really be considered a team that is, ‘going for it’. The Rays got off to that great start in 2023 and the Jays floundered at the close of the season. Both lost rather meekly in their Wild Card series. That’s admittedly better than the Yankees did, but standing in place did not make either team better. Who knows about the Red Sox? Alex Cora is a great manager and Rafael Devers is an under-appreciated star outside of Boston, Tristan Casas is an up-and-comer, however the Red Sox pitching slate is filled with question marks.
What about the AL Central and AL West teams?
Can you think of any team in either the AL Central or AL West that spent or traded boldly? The answer is no since none of them did. Bobby Witt Jr.’s long term deal showed that the Royals are series about building for the future, but while that was bold for the Royals, signing Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha is hardly a pronouncement of going for it. The Twins and Guardians did little, and yes, the Tigers did bring in Jack Flaherty, Kenta Maeda and Mark Canha. Nice, but not going for it.
The AL West’s most interesting deal was Josh Hader going to the Astros in what appears to possibly be a last round-up for this group of players in Houston. The Rangers stood basically pat, unless you consider David Robertson, Kirby Yates and Tyler Mahle to be significant moves. But World Series champions can kind of do what they want. The Mariners added two Mitch’s — Haniger, and Garver, and, traded for Jorge Polanco. That’s not going for it. No need to mention the Angels and A’s here as everyone that knows anything about baseball knows of their somewhat futile prospects for the 2023 season.
Are there any National League teams besides the Dodgers that appear to be going all in?
The Braves and Phillies were not bold, and while both teams have designs on winning the World Series, the Braves bringing in Chris Sale, Reynoldo Lopez, and Jarred Kelenic, by no stretch is that any kind of throw-down. Nor is the Phillies re-signing of Aaron Nola. Not one other National League team decided to run with the Dodgers or Orioles by being bold whether that’s by the free agent market or trade. Maybe the Dodgers are just too rich for everyone else’s blood. At least this year.
Does going for it mean a trip to the World Series?
Going for it in one season does not guarantee success as the Mets and Dodgers (ok and the Padres, Braves and Yankees) can tell you only from last year. The Dodgers decided to do it again this season signing both Shohei Ohtani and Yamamoto. Spending a billion dollars is definitively ‘going for it’! Maybe things will work out better this time. Going for it did work for the Rangers last season. Remember that Texas brought in Jacob DeGrom before the season and Max Scherzer at the trading deadline. DeGrom pitched well before his injury helping the Rangers get off to a great start. Scherzer also contributed when he joined the team. But those pitchers were brought in to bolster the team for the playoffs, and they contributed a total of three Scherzer appearances with seven strikeouts in the entire playoffs, and nothing from either in the World Series. It can be argued that the fortification of bringing in both DeGrom and Mad Max let the players know that the Rangers were all-in for 2023. Don’t think it doesn’t matter to players when the organization displays a commitment to winning a championship.
MLB has both perennially good teams and perennially bad ones. It’s not easy to sustain success even when having tremendous financial resources. To win a championship is the ultimate prize since after a while, being a good team making the playoffs every year isn’t enough. When a team like the Arizona Diamondbacks catches fire as they did in 2023, that team must consider more than ever before, that the brass ring might be within reach and to push all the chips to the center of the table to win THIS season.
About the Author: Mark Kolier along with his son Gordon co-hosts a baseball podcast called ‘Almost Cooperstown’. He also has written baseball-related articles that can be accessed on Medium.com and now Substack.com.
