Devaluing Starting Pitchers is bad for baseball
A possible push from MLB that starting pitchers go at least six innings is a response to a future in which there are few standout pitchers. If you missed it,
MLB suggested that pitchers would have to pitch:
Six innings
Throw 100 pitches
Or give up more than 4 runs before they have pitched six innings
Joe Posnanski and I are on the same thought track on Monday, as he posted about the idea that starting pitchers are a dying breed. Not long ago I surmised that the lowest cost to MLB owners for pitching would be to have 9 pitchers who could go up to three innings every two or three days and then four other pitchers that would pitch shorter stints, but pitch more often each week — maybe four or five times. The effect on pitcher salaries would surely be negative, something MLB owners have already considered. But this trend is terrible for baseball which is in dire need of pitching stars!
Percentage of complete games since 1954:
1954: 34.0%
1964: 24.5%
1974: 28.0%
1984: 15.0%
1994: 8.0%
2004: 3.1%
2014: 2.4%
2024: 0.06%
I know you are not surprised but 0.06% seems unbelievable After all we know through August 18 there have been 25 complete games in 2024 already. Go back 108 years and as Joe P. points, out Walter Johnson completed 36 of 38 starts in 1916. Eleven years later Lefty Grove completed 27 of 30 games for the 1927 Yankees. Baseball fans are sappy about the 1960s and 1970 because there was a plethora of pitching stars! Koufax, Gibson, Marichal, Seaver, Jenkins, Carlton, those pitchers were titans! They dominated hitters, consistently pitched deep into games, completing more than 30% and it was a treat to watch a tiring future HOFer try to navigate the eighth and ninth inning of a one-run game.
On Saturday this week the Met’s Luis Severino implored his manager Carlos Mendoza to leave him in the game in the ninth inning after he had plunked the leadoff hitter. Severino was also set to soar past 100 pitches and the crowd booed when Mendoza left the dugout surely to pull his starter. But Severino somehow convinced Mendoza to give him one MORE batter and with that confidence Severino finished the complete game shutout. To date there have been 15 complete game shutouts this season. 50 years ago, in 1974 there were 227 complete game shutouts.
50 years ago there were many more complete game (CG) shutouts
That 1974 season list of 96 pitchers who tossed shutouts includes 12 future HOFers. The Met’s Jon Matlack and Boston’s Luis Tiant tied for the MLB lead with seven shutouts in the second year of the DH in the American League. The usual suspects were there, Cy Young winner Catfish Hunter, Fergie Jenkins, and Phil Niekro had six shutouts, Tom Seaver and Don Sutton five, Gaylord Perry four, Bert Blyleven, Jim Kaat, and Nolan Ryan each had three, Jim Palmer two, Steve Carlton and Bob Gibson one each. Talk about future HOF star power!
In 1995 (since 1994 was a strike season, the future HOFer Mike Mussina led MLB with four complete game shutouts, Randy Johnson and Greg Maddux had three CG shutouts, Pedro Martinez had two, Tom Glavine and his teammate John Smoltz one each. In just 21 years, the total amount of future HOF pitchers throwing shutouts had been cut in half from 12 to six.
The likely future HOF starting pitchers pitching in 2024 include Clayton Kershaw, Justin Verlander, and? Gerritt Cole might be closest, but he and all others are too far away to even project.
This season’s shutout throwers have few if any pitchers that have a chance for induction in Cooperstown unless you feel 28-year-old (29 in December), Dylan Cease, who did throw a complete game no hitter this season, is about to go on a great run over the next 10+ seasons. Don’t count on it.
Great hitters have dominated tiring starters
One of the reasons for my son Gordon and I started a podcast in 2020, (we now have more than 250 episodes which is 200 more than we ever imagined), was to talk about the idea of how much easier Ty Cobb had it over Mike Trout because pitchers pitched the entire game when Cobb played, and Trout faces/faced a parade of hard-throwing relievers late in games in contrast. What we found was that great hitters are great hitters in any inning, and their overall performance did not necessarily spike in the late innings as much as we presumed.
Joe Posnanski took a different more granular tack than looking at innings seven through nine, and it is more in line with what Gordon, and I originally thought:
Hitter vs. Batter, facing a starter for the 4th time (or more):
Babe Ruth, 1927: 119 PAs, .394/.492/.894 with 12 home runs
Ted Williams, 1941: 85 PAs, .446/.577/.877 with 7 home runs
Mickey Mantle, 1956: 80 PAs, .386/.463/.871 with 11 home runs.
Frank Robinson, 1966: 63 PAs, .333/.460/.706 with 6 home runs.
Joe Morgan, 1976: 54 PAs, .439/.556/.902 with 10 extra bases hits.
Mike Schmidt, 1980: 48 PAs, .361/.479/.667 with 3 home runs and 10 walks.
Cal Ripken, 1991: 45 PAs, .463/.511/.756 with 3 home runs.
Barry Bonds, 2001: 21 PAs, .438/.571/.1.188 with 4 home runs
Miguel Cabrera, 2010: 14 PAs, .400/.500/.700 with 1 home run
Aaron Judge, 2024: 0 PAs
Here we go! Aside from Aaron Judge NEVER getting an opportunity to face a starting pitcher for a fourth time, the above HOFers and would and will-be HOFers, have crushed the starter the fourth time around in a game even if the samples are somewhat small. Considering that Judge has been walked several times with nobody on base, him facing a starter for a 4th time would be a near impossibility unless that pitcher had less than 100 pitches in the 9th inning trying to pitch a no-hitter or perfect game. Even then I am not 100% sure a manager would leave that pitcher if the game was tight.
It’s right that MLB is paying attention and desires a game that has star pitchers. Fans want to watch the stars play no matter what the sport! In considering a six- inning threshold, tinkering to make the value of starting pitchers greater than the trend suggests is good for business even if it’s bad for pitcher salaries. As a penalty, removing the team’s DH when pulling the starter early is a better idea than I thought at first. After all the DH was the first big move away from baseball the way is used to be.
From my friends and writers at IBWAA this week when Paul Jackson wrote about Bob Feller’s amazing six incomplete games in 1946. Feller completed 36 games that season:
‘The last time a single team had even double-digits in complete games was the 2016 San Francisco Giants with 10. James Shields’ 11 complete games in 2011 is the only individual pitcher in the 2000s with more than 10. he last time a team exceeded 20 complete games combined was the 1998 Atlanta Braves with 24 (the Yankees and Phillies also had more than 20 as a team that season). The last time 30 was eclipsed by a team was in 1989, when the California Angels hurled 32. Incredibly, the last time AN ENTIRE TEAM posted more than Feller’s 36 complete games from that season was in 1988, when the Texas Rangers had starters who completed 41 games, led by 13 from Bobby Witt (now known as Bobby Witt, Senior).’
It’s 26 years ago that the Braves threw 24 complete games. You know who the pitchers were.
About the Author: Mark Kolier along with his son Gordon co-hosts a baseball podcast called ‘Almost Cooperstown’. He also has written baseball-related articles that can be accessed on Medium.com and Substack.com
