Being in the top 100 all-time for total bases far from guarantees induction in Cooperstown
I did a post on Total Bases per plate appearance making the claim that it along with a derivative stat I also created, Total Bases Created, could or maybe should be used as an evaluation statistic!
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The idea for the post began by simply looking at the list of career total base leaders. It’s a very cool list. When I was reviewing that list again recently, I noticed that the top 100 on the list are the top 100 players for total bases in the history of baseball! OK, maybe that’s not a revelation since that list as you’d expect is rife with Hall-of-Famers. Yet 28 of the players on those two lists aren’t Hall-of-Famers. It’s a near certainty that three of the players will be elected within the next few years. But for now, with more than 23,000 players in baseball history (including Negro Leagues players), those 28 represent .0001% of all who ever played MLB. Seems pretty discerning to me.
The seven you-know-why-guys aren’t in the HOF
The players and where they are on the list of the top 100 for total bases in MLB history are:
Barry Bonds #5, A-Rod #7, Pete Rose #8, Rafael Palmeiro #12, Manny Ramirez #30, Gary Sheffield #35, Sammy Sosa #40.
18 players of the top 100 all-time in total bases not in Cooperstown
Carlos Beltran #34, Dave Parker #56, Luis Gonzalez #58, Robinson Cano #63, Vada Pinson #66, Jeff Kent #69, Dwight Evans #71, Johnny Damon #73, Rusty Staub #76, Steve Finley #78, Torii Hunter #82, Paul Konerko and Al Oliver tied #83, Andres Galarraga #87, Bobby Abreu #88, Aramis Ramirez #90, Garret Anderson #94, Carlos Delgado #95, and finally Steve Garvey, (who is on the HOF Classic Players ballot that will be announced December 8th).
Three that will be first-ballot HOFers
Not included on the list above is Miguel Cabrera (#14), but he’s a certainty when his time comes up for a vote. Albert Pujols is #2 on this list right behind Hank Aaron. His first chance at induction will come in 2028, (Miggy‘s in 2029). Ichiro is #93 on the list and considering he played nine productive seasons in Japan: he’d be much higher on the list. Ichiro’s combined Japanese league and MLB stats total 5,883 which would be good enough for sixth all-time behind Barry Bonds and ahead of Ty Cobb. Of course, Ichiro will be a first ballot HOFer when his name comes up on the 2025 ballot.
Round-trippers matter
Home runs make a big difference so it’s no surprise that Aaron and Pujols are at the top of the list. Somehow, 13 of the players in the top 100 did not hit more than 160 home runs (Pete Rose). Yet aside from Rose, all are in the Hall-of-Fame. Tony Gwynn had 135 career homers, Ty Cobb and Tris Speaker had 117 each, Honus Wagner 101, Cap Anson 97, Nap LaJoie 72, Sam Crawford (97), Eddie Collins (43), Paul Waner (52), Jake Beckley (played before 1900) 87, Rod Carew (92), and Sam Rice came in at #98 in total bases hitting only 34 career homers. Of this group, only Carew played after 1945 when Paul Waner retired.
HOFer Harold Baines is in the top 100 at #43. Surprised? I was a little.
Of the top 100, the non-Hall-of-Famers were all excellent players, and many had a compelling case for being included in Cooperstown. Gary Sheffield might be the most egregious since his links with PEDs were among the weakest of those accused. David Ortiz has similar veiled links to PEDs, but it did not forestall his induction.
Dave Parker, who like Garvey is also on the Classic Players ballot next month, should benefit from being on the list at #56, and Carlos Beltran seems likely to be inducted but it’s sadly not a guarantee given Astro-gate and the past behavior of HOF voters. Cano at #63 will have an even more difficult case than Dave Parker with his own PED suspensions.
Other names in the not-included list are frequently discussed as near-miss candidates and most but not all, their names come up on ballots like the Classic Era one periodically. Luis Gonzalez at #58 keeps coming up as someone who should get second and third looks at being in the Hall of Fame.
Playing for many years really helps too
Career longevity is a common thread. That’s why Mike Trout is not on this list as he is 250th on the list behind Joe Adcock and Todd Zeile. If Trout were to be healthy for three more close-to-his-normal seasons, he would jump into the top 100. With Mike Trout that is far from guaranteed.
The list is sexy going down to 150 where you find Moises Alou. 19 HOFers out of the group between 101–150 and the other 31 are Almost Guys. Joey Votto, (134), is in that group along with Dale Murphy (131), Mark McGwire (145), and Chili Davis (102). Freddie Freeman a surefire future HOFer, is at 109 and will break into the top 100 next season.
There are not too many names that made my eyebrows go up, maybe Johnny Damon at 73 and Steve Finley at 78. Both players have better cases for Cooperstown than people remember.
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I am not making the case that the entire list of the top 100 should be in the Hall-of-Fame but there are players much further down the list, Ralph Kiner at #386, and Hack Wilson at 481, whose shorter but excellent careers didn’t preclude them from being enshrined.
Yes, defense matters but when you are talking about the top 100 lists of MLB all-time, that’s a grander achievement than it gets credit for being!
About the Author: Mark Kolier along with his son Gordon co-hosts a baseball podcast called ‘Almost Cooperstown’. He also has written baseball-related articles that can be accessed on Medium.com and Substack.com.
