Bad base stealers who kept on trying anyway
Successfully stealing on at least 75% of attempts is at the lower end of the ‘worth it’ scale. An 80% success rate or better is preferred. With the liberalization of the rules to afford more base stealing that were instituted in 2023, there have been more stolen bases overall. But the bigger change might be that bad base stealers have stopped trying to steal.
The successful steal percentages have risen and of the top 25 highest success rate for steals players, 12 are ACTIVE players. This is since stats for steals have been kept going back to 1876.
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Baseball-Reference has a career-leaders page for steal percentage based on Minimum of 1000 IP, 3000 PA, 500 games (fielding, 500 IP for Ps), 200 stolen base attempts (catchers) or 80 stolen base attempts (baserunners only since 1951) or 100 decisions for career and active leaderboards for rate statistics. There are a total of 890 players on this list.
The top names with the highest successful SB percentages on the leaderboard are Byron Buxton, Brice Turang, and Bryson Stott. Three active players and the ‘Killer Bees’ of steals.
Of the top 25, only HOFer Tim Raines played before 1980, and his first year was 1979.
Over the years catchers have worked on their ‘pop’ times, (the time the ball is caught and received by the fielder), and strengthened their arms. The distance between bases has shrunk a bit due to the larger bases and baserunners today are faster and have better overall techniques than their forebears. It’s harder than ever to throw out would-be base stealers. Bad ones have stopped trying as it’s just not worth it, while good ones are attempting more steals — and should attempt even MORE steals!
The other end of the scale and HOFers who were bad at stealing bases.
Of the 890 players on the list the worst attempted base pilferer ever was two-time All-Star Dennis Menke who played between 1962–74. Menke was successful on only 38.6% of his attempts. Menke did have 34 successful steals in his career but was caught 53 times, never swiping more than six bases in any one season. It’s entirely possible that Menke was victim to a bunch of missed hit-and-run or bunt plays ending up being left out to dry once the batter failed to do the job. But it’s more likely he just wasn’t any good at stealing bases.
The worst Hall of Fame percentage base stealer was Nellie Fox, who in 147 career steal attempts was successful 47.9% of the time. Fox had little power (35 career homers), and perhaps he felt he had to help his team on the bases. He didn’t. Fox did have 112 career triples leading the American League with 10 in 1960 for the Chicago White Sox.
HOFer Gary Carter was successful 48.1% of his attempts (39 steals, 42 times caught stealing). I don’t remember Carter doing much base stealing while with the Mets and that’s because Carter only attempted five steals in his five seasons with the team. He was successful on two of those which is slightly below his career average.
The list of the bottom 26, (because all of them are below a 50% success rate) also includes one other HOFer, Ernie Banks (a shortstop and then first baseman who hit 512 career home runs). Mr. Sunshine was apparently not Mr. Speedy.
A couple of names on the list are ‘Almost’ HOFers. Thurman Munson and Chet Lemon. It’s hard to figure why a catcher like Munson, while not having big-time power but still having hit 113 career homers, would try to steal in the first place. Lemon, whose career is much better than most people know, hit 215 career home runs but was caught stealing 76 times being successful on only 58 occasions. That could have left a sour taste in the mouths of HOF voters. Playing in the renewed era of the steal (Rickey Henderson, Tim Raines, Vince Coleman), probably contributed to Lemon trying more often than he should.
Another borderline HOFer is Buddy Bell who is the third most miserable base stealer, seeing success on only 41% of his career attempts stealing 55 and being caught 79 times. Why Buddy Why? Had Bell seen success like Buxton he would have amassed 118 steals out of his 134 attempts. Although I doubt that would have changed the minds of many HOF voters.
None of the players on the bottom of the list played before Bill Tuttle in 1952. He had an 11-year career with three teams including the Tigers for whom he played an American League leading 154 games in 1955. An otherwise forgettable player and is the only notable statistic on Tuttle’s resume. But at least he’s being remembered!
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With an emphasis on statistics driving many of the in-game decisions, expect the good base stealers to try to steal more and bad ones to stay on their base. There will no longer be 50% or less success rate base stealers making their dash for futility.
About the Author: Mark Kolier along with his son Gordon co-hosts a baseball podcast called ‘Almost Cooperstown’. He also has written baseball-related articles that can be accessed on Medium.com and Substack.com.
